Halfway Through 2025: Where the Markets Stand — And What’s Next
A midyear review of key market trends, risks, and opportunities shaping the second half of 2025.
We’re already halfway through 2025. I don’t know about you, but it feels like the first six months flew by — and the markets definitely kept us on our toes.
As we hit this midyear checkpoint, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on what’s happened so far in the markets, the economy, and policy mand share a few thoughts on what might lie ahead.
The Markets: A Roller Coaster, But We’re (Somehow) Higher
If you’d asked me back in January where we’d be by July, I doubt I would’ve guessed this. After everything that’s happened, the April tariff shock, recession whispers, wild swings in bonds and the dollar — we’re still up.
S&P 500? Up about 5–6% YTD.
Nasdaq? Similar story.
Dow? Up, but trailing tech.
What really stood out? The dominance of tech and AI giants. Even after that massive April drop — when new tariffs sparked the biggest one-day losses since 2020, the “Magnificent 7” (think Nvidia, Meta, Apple, etc.) helped pull markets to fresh records by June’s end.
It’s one of those moments that makes you pause: Are we just super resilient — or are we living on borrowed time?
Policy + The Economy: Walking a Tightrope
Let’s talk policy. Honestly, it’s been a bit of a tug-of-war:
On one hand:
We saw massive tariffs come in (and briefly roil markets).
Washington keeps debating deficit reduction vs. more stimulus, that “One Big Beautiful Bill” is ambitious, but it’s got investors nervous about what’s next.
On the other:
The Fed has kept rates steady, watching inflation slowly cool (hovering ~2.3%).
The economy has stayed stronger than many expected — jobs solid, consumer spending still healthy.
But underneath? Cracks are showing. The dollar has slumped (worst first half in 50+ years), and trade tensions are dragging GDP growth. There’s definitely a sense that things could tip either way in the second half.
What I’m Watching for H2 2025
Here’s what I’ll personally be keeping an eye on — and what I think matters most right now:
Earnings season: Can companies actually justify these high valuations? Tech can’t carry everything forever.
Tariff policy: Will we get more clarity or more surprises? Markets hate the unknown.
Recession signals: Some forecasts are calling for a mild downturn later this year. Watching job numbers and spending will be key.
If you’re like me, this halfway point feels like a good time to take a breath. The market’s been resilient — but that doesn’t mean it’s invincible. My approach right now? Stay diversified. Don’t chase the hottest thing. And most of all, stay grounded in fundamentals.
I’d love to hear what you’re thinking about for the second half of the year — reply to this and tell me:
👉 What’s your biggest market concern or opportunity for the rest of 2025?
Thanks for reading — and here’s to a smart, steady, and successful H2.
- Miles Gill
